Working Papers
2025
Large Language Models (LLMs) have demonstrated remarkable capabilities in text comprehension, but their ability to process complex, hierarchical tabular data remains underexplored. We present a novel approach to extracting structured data from multi-page government fiscal documents using LLM-based techniques. Applied to large annual fiscal documents from the State of Karnataka in India, our method achieves high accuracy through a multi-stage pipeline that leverages domain knowledge, sequential context, and algorithmic validation. Traditional OCR methods work poorly with errors that are hard to detect. The inherent structure of fiscal tables, with totals at each level of the hierarchy, allows for robust internal validation of the extracted data. We use these hierarchical relationships to create multi-level validation checks. We demonstrate that LLMs can read tables and also process document-specific structural hierarchies, offering a scalable process for converting PDF-based fiscal disclosures into research-ready databases. Our implementation shows promise for broader applications across developing country contexts.
With the Russia–Ukraine war evolving into a prolonged war of attrition, the functioning of the two economies has become central. A small but growing literature uses alternative data to measure economic activity, responding to the limitations of official statistics. In this paper, we use nighttime lights (“NTL”) data to track economic changes in both countries. Ukraine’s NTL has fallen by 50% compared to 2022 levels. In contrast, Russia’s aggregate NTL showed virtually no change between 2022 and 2025. Within Russia, the Yamal–Nenets Autonomous Okrug, which produces 90% of the country’s gas, recorded substantial ntl growth despite reports of declining national gas production. We also identify growth reversals in regions hundreds of kilometres from the Ukrainian border, likely reflecting the effects of standoff weapons. Similar reversals appear along Russia’s Western European border but not along other international frontiers, suggesting uneven enforcement of sanctions. Over the war years, Ukraine’s economic activity has shifted westward, while Russia’s has moved eastward.
A banking sector regulator must be non-partisan and separate from government. However, the banking sector in India comprises banks of many kinds: private banks, public sector banks, cooperative banks, and regional rural banks. The laws that govern the sector have evolved to grant special powers over some categories of banks to the Union government, thereby, diluting or sometimes even nullifying the power of the Indian banking regulator, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI), over these banks. In most cases, the power of the RBI has been diluted or nullified in respect of public sector banks and the State Bank of India. This is not desirable from the perspective of ownership neutral regulation and creates an unfair playing field for banks in the sector. It also raises serious conflict of interest concerns, where the government is both a borrower and regulator, can influence the functioning of some banks. This article examines the legal provisions that undermine the regulatory powers of the RBI including on shareholding, appointment of directors, winding up and making schemes. It argues for an ownership-neutral regulatory framework emphasising the need for greater autonomy for the RBI, and the creation of a clear separation between the governments borrowing and regulatory role. The aim is to chart the pathway towards a more robust regulation of the banking sector in India.
2024
This paper examines the prerequisites for successful drug procurement within the Indian public healthcare system. It argues that the primal objective is timely availability of medicines, and analyses two successful procurement cases, from which four common elements emerge. One, an information system on stocks and flows of medicine. Two, processes and manuals covering the full pipeline of the procurement contract. Three, procedures and work allocation during emergencies. Four, an information system on present and prospective vendors. These elements, coupled with a supply-chain focused mandate on delivery to the end user, and investments in regular training of personnel, enable a public healthcare system that can deliver medicines reliably.
Much of Indian public finance research has focused on the level of debt and deficits. In this paper, we examine the structure of lenders to the Indian state. To what extent is this lending coerced? Is the present debt management strategy consistent with the objectives of low cost borrowing for the government in the long run, while preserving efficiency in the economy, and retaining the optionality of surging borrowing when faced with rare events? We find 5% of the lending to the Indian state comes from voluntary sources. While financial repression for banks eased de jure with a decline in the SLR from 33% in 1988 to 18% in 2021, lending to the state beyond regulatory requirements was Rs.30 trillion in 2021. Alongside this, the growth of the pension and insurance industries created new pools of assets where financial repression generated bountiful lending to the government. These facts help re-examine debt management strategy in India.
2023
Despite significant policy support for financial inclusion, there is little evidence about what has been achieved by way of knowing which households and individuals are financially included, or what is the impact of such inclusion on these persons. We propose a measurement framework that aims to capture these aspects of financial inclusion using an input-output-outcome perspective. The input to financial inclusion is measured as participation in formal financial sector instruments. The output is the extent to which these are used. The outcome is how those who hold and use these instruments perceive their own well-being. A survey questionnaire is designed to collect this information, with two distinct features: It is conducted for a household, since financial holdings benefit more than one individual in a household. It is designed to facilitate regular collection, in order to aid financial service providers and policy makers in their thinking about improving financial inclusion. We deploy the questionnaire to understand the financial inclusion of a sample of 300 low-income households in two geographic areas in India. We find that financial participation has a positive correlation with financial well-being, a relationship which is significant even after controlling for income level and ownership of physical assets.
A central choice in public administration is whether to ‘make’, which is production within the public sector, or ‘buy’, which is public procurement. While ‘buy’ has the advantage of harnessing the energy of private firms, it requires state capacity in contracting and leads to questions on how to obtain state capacity in contracting. One measure of state capacity in procurement is the extent of failure to spend resources budgeted for procurement. We construct a novel dataset about spending gaps (between what is budgeted and what is spent) in procurement by the Indian union government. We find that the spending gaps are the smallest when buying goods, and the highest with works. We find that ministries that have a sustained engagement with procurement fare better on obtaining minimum gaps in procurement spending, which suggests a process of learning by doing.
2022
The literature on the performance evaluation of the judiciary captures the perspectives of judges, researchers and court administrators. However, it is not obvious if a litigant who proposes to access the judiciary for the resolution of a dispute would use the same or similar metrics when evaluating the performance of courts. In this paper, we review the global literature that evaluates the performance of the judiciary and identify which of the metrics in the literature would directly matter to a litigant who proposes to access the courts for redress. Using the litigant’s expectations as performance metrics, we develop an evaluative framework for comparing similar courts. Our work creates the foundation for developing an information system that could potentially help litigants make informed choices when approaching courts.
2021
An estimation of the total value of central government procurement in India using data from the Government e-Marketplace (GeM) and departmental accounts, providing a baseline measurement of the state's footprint as a buyer in the economy.
A methodological contribution to the use of satellite nighttime lights as an economic activity proxy. The paper documents systematic cloud-induced measurement bias in VIIRS data and proposes a correction procedure validated against ground truth economic indicators.
Using household survey data matched with administrative land records quality indicators, this paper estimates whether digitisation and completeness of land record systems affect households' access to formal credit — with implications for land reform policy.
2017
This paper studies how firms respond after getting listed on small and medium enterprise (SME) exchanges in India, examining changes in capital structure, growth, and profitability — and whether listing confers benefits beyond access to equity capital.
An empirical evaluation of the commodity transactions tax introduced in India in 2013, examining its impact on trading volumes, liquidity, and price discovery in commodity derivatives markets.
2014
An identification strategy using regulatory changes as natural experiments to estimate the causal effect of algorithmic trading on liquidity, price discovery, and volatility in Indian equity markets.
Using data from Indian commodity futures markets, this paper assesses whether futures trading improves spot price discovery and provides effective hedging instruments for farmers and traders — particularly in agricultural commodities.
2013
This paper proposes and applies a network-based methodology to identify systemically important non-financial firms in India, using balance sheet linkages and equity return correlations to rank firms by their potential for systemic distress propagation.
2012
Develops measures of asymmetry in market liquidity — situations where the cost of buying differs from the cost of selling — and applies these to Indian equity markets to understand market stress and one-sided order flow dynamics.
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For a complete list including older unpublished work, see the full CV.